Future Is Projecting on the basis of TRIZ
Future Is Projecting on the basis of TRIZ.
© Rubin M.S., Russia, Petrozavodsk, 22 may 2002.
The present work is devoted to the qualitative method of prognosticating on the basis of the Theory of Solving Inventive Task (TRIZ).
Important turning points in development of social, social-economic and social-technical systems while prognosticating are considered to be inventions and decisions of the main contradictions existing with in the system.
The system multilevel prognostication methodic on the basis of multiscreen scheme of talented thinking known in TRIZ has been worked out. Her foundation is based on the system of ideal prognosis: system, super-system and subsystem. Ideal prognosis is formulated in the form of an ideal model or image, e.g. a city without vehicle, water without water pipe, etc. In some social and social-technical system (a city) it is impossible to formulate the main function and accordingly – an ideal model or image is being designed (an ideal family, an ideal personality, etc.).
Proposed approaches and methods of prognostication and TRIZ-analysis of social-technical systems have been several times a probated since 1989. In particular, prognosis development of civilization, tidal energetic, city, municipal vehicle, water-supply system, scientific method and sport development have been worked out. Works on TRIZ analysis of Tulomskaya Hydroelectric power station and Apatitskaya Termo-electric power station and other objects have been done.
1. The methodology created by G. S. Altshuller in TRIZ can be applied for social and social-technical system development prognostication.
2. TRIZ methods applying for prognosis demand its adaptation towards the peculiarities of complicated social systems.
3. Prognosing on TRIZ basis needs professional skills in applying G. S. Altshuller theory.
4. The proposed methods demand approbation and specifying. They can be used in accompany with well-known methods of qualitative and quantitative prognosing.
5. TRIZ methods give an approach to solving prognosis task on the basis of system prognostic projecting. The possibility of creating of a scientifically valid approach towards prognosing apparels. Prognosing transfers into a non-stop iteration process of future projecting.
6. Proposed methods are universal. They can be applied for prognosis and TRIZ analysis of social-technical systems as well as for solving concrete task from different spheres of activity. Common methodological approach in the development of social-technical systems in being created.
1. Prognostication on the basis of the method of solving “key” contradictions.
The Contradiction and the Ideality as the Methods of Prognostication.
Any invention can be regarded as a prognosis. In fact the process of technical inventing and making high-quality prognoses differs only in fields where the tasks are considered and the resources available for solving these tasks. The methodological basis of solving technical tasks and making high-quality prognoses is the same.
When solving a contradiction a qualitative leap takes place, and changes the image of the system in principle. Instead of carriages there appeared automobiles and urban transport. Instead of city walls there appeared absolutely different systems: regular armed forces, the frontier, the air-defense, etc. It is quite possible to predict the appearing of such qualitative leaps in the system development with the help of TRIZ technologies, which help to reveal the key contradictions in the system, to make the analysis of the available resources, and to find solutions, corresponding with the general tendencies of the systems’ development.
In the social and social technical systems it is not always possible to formulate one main function, it can change together with the evolution of the system. E.g. at the beginning the main function of a town was to protect people. Nowadays different cities can have different functions, e.g. scientific, industrial and others. On the contrary, as a rule, it is possible to reveal the “main”, “key” contradictions, which restrain the development of these systems. The “key” contradictions are usually not at all evident, and are in the shadow of several other contradictions or problems. It’s typical for the “key” contradictions that they intensify as well-known, generally accepted measures are taken to solve them. E.g. the more we develop urban transport, the more difficult becomes the problem of transport. The ideal solution is the creation of “cities without transport”, to be more precise, cities with information and other technologies, which eliminate the necessity of intra-urban displacement. The ideal solution of the “key” contradiction may cause on the first step the misunderstanding, and the necessity to solve a group of new problems.
The Steps of Prognosticating on the Basis of Solving “Key” Contradictions.
One can identify several steps in working out prognoses on the basis of revealing and solving contradictions.
1. The statement of a task, the choice of an object for prognosticating.
2. The analysis of the object: the composition of elements, the links, the hierarchy, and the temporal changes.
3. The building up of the information fund. The search for the available prognoses, and the problem literature on the considered topic.
4. The analysis of the information fund and revealing of the contradictions of the chosen object.
5. The depicting of the main, “key” contradictions, the revealing of contradictions of the type “the more you invest to solve the contradiction, the more difficult and intense it becomes”.
6. The formulating of the ideal solution: there is no object, but its function is fulfilled.
7. The analysis of the available resources.
8. The search and analysis of possible solutions. The building up of a group of new tasks.
9. If necessary, the repeated analysis of the situation from point1, taking into consideration the analysis fulfilled before and the traced decisions.
It must be noted that the methods in full can be used only on the basis of the TRIZ methods and approaches.
The suggested method of prognostication isn’t practically limited by the hierarchical level of the considered social technical system: it can be a single technical system, a social technical system such as a factory, a city, or a civilization as a whole.
2. The Method of Systematical Prognostication on Many Levels.
The prognostication on the basis of the solution of the “key” contradictions is, as a rule, not enough for working out a prognosis of full value. The changes connected with the solution of the main contradiction of the system demand the solution of the attendant tasks. It is possible to make a prognosis of full value only within the systematic approach to the consequences of the suggested solution. The main idea of the systematical prognostication on many levels consists in the analysis and development of the prognosis on the basis of the system operator by G. S. Altshuller.
The main steps of the systematical prognostication on many levels are as follows:
1. A prognosis is formulated on the basis of the method of solving of “key” contradictions (or on the basis of any other method).
2. A passage is made to the supersystem or to the subsystem from the screen “the future of the system” to the screen “the future of the supersystem” or to the screen “the future of the subsystem”. Thus it is determined how the supersystem or the subsystem should look. Thus a prognosis “on the vertical line” is made.
3. An object in the supersystem or in subsystem is chosen, for which a new prognosis is formulated.
4. An analysis “on the horizontal line” (the past, the present, the future) is made for the chosen object. It’s more convenient to make this analysis step by step according to how it is described in the method of revealing and solving the “key” contradictions.
5. The results of the prognostication “on the horizontal line” and “on the vertical line” are compared.
6. If the research was carried out correctly, the prognosis “on the horizontal line” ought to coincide with the prognosis “on the vertical line”. For all this, the prognoses ought to supplement, specify and extend one another.
7. The prognoses “on the vertical” and “on the horizontal lines” can theoretically contradict one another, (which hasn’t however happened in our practice). In this case it is necessary to carry out a supplementary research. This one can be carried out from points 1, 2, or 3. An additional gaining of information of a specific research in a certain branch of industry may be also necessary.
8. Having taken as basis the obtained prognosis, we carry out the following analysis from point. Within this a passage to a supersystem or to a subsystem may become necessary.
9. On the basis of the described procedure of the repeated multistep analysis a system of interdependent prognoses is worked out.
3. From Social Technical Prognostication to TRIZ-Analysis.
Paradoxical as it is it’s impossible to see the image of the real world in social technical prognoses prepared on the basis of the described methods. It’s more of an ideal image, a project on the basis of which the edifice of the real world is built up.
To pass from building up ideal prognoses to making precise decisions a supplementary research work, which we called TRIZ-analysis is necessary. This method allows taking into consideration a specific situation, specific time, place, available resources to make this or that decision.
TRIZ-analysis is the instrument of linking and adapting of the general prognosis to a specific situation and specific resources. TRIZ-analysis is aimed at the revealing of the main contradictions of a specific social-technical system (a city, a factory, a group of enterprises, and a commercial structure) and solving of the revealed tasks. When choosing and raising these problems social and technical prognoses may be used.
The above described methods were used in carrying out of a prognosis of the development of the civilization (G. S. Altshuller, M. S. Rubin “Eight Ideas on Nature and Engineering”), the prognosis of the development of cities, of urban transport, of tidal energetic, of the water-supply systems, science, sport, and some other social and social-technical systems. The works on TRIZ-analysis were carried out for the Cascade of the river Tuloma hydroelectric power stations in Murmansk region in Russia and for some other enterprises.